The Sanctions Paradox in 2025
The Sanctions Paradox in 2025 was written by Daniel W. Drezner in 2025. It was published on his blog.
This post builds on a paywalled op-ed that was published the same week, and more generally on the author's 1999 work. The main thesis of that work is that sanctions fail because they spiral out of control. Sanctions induce isolationism on the sanctioned; they increase willingness among the leadership and/or the general public to accept those costs as the alternative to foreign intervention.
So when asked whether the U.S. oil sanctions against Russia will lead to peace in Ukraine, the authors says no. They point to the long-term sanctions against Iran and Venezuela which have not yielded results.
The author then makes an argument that sanctions should not be dropped because they reinforce the norms and international laws around sovereignty, and they also reduce Russia's economic capacity to wage war.