= The Sanctions Paradox in 2025 =

'''The Sanctions Paradox in 2025''' was written by Daniel W. Drezner in 2025. It was published on his [[https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-sanctions-paradox-in-2025|blog]].

This post builds on a [[https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/10/sanctions-paradox-russia-united-states/|paywalled op-ed]] that was published the same week, and more generally on the author's [[TheSanctionsParadox|1999 work]]. The main thesis of that work is that sanctions fail because they spiral out of control. Sanctions induce isolationism on the sanctioned; they increase willingness among the leadership and/or the general public to accept those costs as the alternative to foreign intervention.

So when asked whether the [[UnitedStates/DonaldTrump|U.S.]] oil sanctions against [[Russia/VladimirPutin|Russia]] will lead to peace in [[Ukraine]], the authors says no. They point to the long-term sanctions against [[Iran]] and [[Venezuela]] which have not yielded results.

The author then makes an argument that sanctions should not be dropped because they reinforce the norms and international laws around sovereignty, and they also reduce Russia's economic capacity to wage war.



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