= Residential Mobility and Neighborhood Characteristics in Chicago =

'''Residential Mobility and Neighborhood Characteristics in Chicago''' (DOI: https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2024-495) was written by Robin Newberger, Mark O'Dell, Taz George, and Sharada Dharmasankar. It was published as Chicago Fed Letter No. 495 (2024).

The analysis utilizes Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax data (CCP) and [[UnitedStates/CensusBureau/AmericanCommunitySurvey|ACS]] 5-year estimates.

 * 18 y.o. + with residence in [[UnitedStates/Chicago|Chicago]] (i.e., a Chicago [[UnitedStates/CensusBureau/Census#Geographies|census tract]] identifier) are the population of study.
 * Three types of moves are marked:
   * '''Moves''' within a census tract are identified by a change in the address flag without a change in the census tract identifier.
   * '''In-moves''' are identified by a change of census tract identifier wherein the subsequent identifier is in-scope.
   * '''Out-moves''' are identified by a change of census tract identifier wherein the prior identifier is in-scope.
 * Category of census tract median income is computed:
   * '''Low- and moderate-income''' ('''LMI''') below threshold of $62,000 in 2010
     * Roughly corresponds to status of LMI neighborhoods as established in [[UnitedStates/HousingPolicy/CommunityReinvestmentAct|Community Reinvestment Act]]
     * Rationale is that movers reacted to recent income history (or at least effects captured by recent income history), not point income measurements
   * '''Middle- and upper-income''' ('''non-LMI''') else
 * '''Net domestic migration''' is considered as the difference between total in-moves and total out-moves; a positive value indicates a status of '''net in-migration''' and the reverse indicates a status of '''net out-migration'''.
 * Census tract '''entry rate''' is calculated as the rate of that tract's in-moves over the sum of that tract's moves and in-moves.
   * Intuitive explanation is: of 100 residents who moved into a new residence in a tract, how many of them are ''new'' to the tract
 * Census tract '''exit rate''' is calculated as the rate of that tract's out-moves over the sum of that tract's moves and out-moves.
 * Several statistics are re-calculated with respect to LMI status.
   * e.g., LMI in-moves are identified by a change of census tract identifier wherein the prior identifier is ''any'' non-LMI tract and the subsequent identifier is ''any'' LMI tract
   * e.g., LMI entry rate is calculated as the rate of LMI in-moves over the sum of LMI in-moves and LMI moves
 * Measures of census tract human capital include:
   * proportional of adults (25 y.o. +) with Bachelor degrees
   * median household income
   * average annual change in jobs
   * median monthly housing costs
   * average annual homicide rate (per 100,000)
   * median credit score risk (from CCP)

Most neighborhoods experienced net out-migration.

Non-LMI tracts were less likely to experience net out-migration.

LMI tracts had lower exit rates than non-LMI tracts. Population loss in LMI tracts is a result of lower rates of entry, creating greater net out-migration, ''not'' higher rates of exit.

Movers tend to relocate ''within'' LMI categories, rather than across.

Migration into and out of Chicago is more frequent in non-LMI tracts.

Population growth is associated with greater human capital, especially CCP risk scores, educational attainment, and median household income.



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